The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for holiday shopping. went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market too. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to several bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
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Although highly regarded money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We talked with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for revenge?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
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"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
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He did note, though, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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